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This is confirmed by a study conducted by the Chilean Association of Renewable Energy and Storage (ACERA AG) and the Institute of Complex Engineering Systems (ISCI). The study concludes that it is technically feasible to operate the National Electric System without fossil-fuel generation, with investments in renewable energy, storage, and flexible demand. The Chilean Association of Renewable Energy and Storage (ACERA AG), together with the Institute of Complex Engineering Systems (ISCI), presented a new study that analyzes pathways toward zero-emissions operation of the national electricity system, including scenarios for 2030, 2035, and 2040. The report details the technical and economic conditions necessary to achieve this goal. The study, titled Cost/Benefit Analysis of Potential Pathways Toward Zero-Emission Operation of the National Electric System , updates a previous analysis conducted in 2022. This version includes new short- and medium-term projections and scenarios, considering factors such as the phase-out of fossil-fuel generation, the growth of variable renewable energy, the development of energy storage systems, and the role of flexible demand as a system enabler. According to the document, eliminating fossil fuel generation is feasible by 2035, provided a proportional expansion of renewables and storage is guaranteed and electricity supply security standards are maintained. Furthermore, it is estimated that incorporating flexible demand could avoid up to 8.8 GW of new installed capacity, which would reduce costs and increase operational efficiency. The analysis includes extreme scenarios resulting from adverse weather events, such as droughts or low wind power generation. Under these conditions, additional investments equivalent to 6 GW in renewable capacity and storage would be required to ensure system reliability. Another relevant finding is that the current investment trajectory, focused primarily on solar energy with storage, could entail higher costs compared to a more balanced expansion that includes wind generation. This is because wind energy, since it operates both day and night, requires less investment in storage to meet the same demand. Finally, the study projects that by 2040, the countrys current installed capacity will need to double, reaching between 60 and 70 GW, to cover new consumption needs such as electromobility and hydrogen production. This will require coordinated planning in transmission, storage, and regulation to efficiently integrate new technologies into the national electricity system. |
