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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that solar irradiance rose well above the March norm in the southern and midwestern US and northeastern Mexico, while parts of the western US and Canada were hit with below-average irradiance levels. The month of March brought above-average irradiance across much of North America, with significant increases in the southern U.S., northeastern Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Midwest. However, this sunny condition was not seen everywhere. Solar producers in Canada and the western U.S., including large solar installations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, experienced decreased irradiance, in some cases well below normal. According to analysis using Solcasts API, this months pattern reflects a split across the continent, with storms reducing irradiance on the West Coast and high-pressure systems keeping the East clear and dry. In the U.S. South and Midwest, irradiance far exceeded the March norm. South Texas stood out with irradiance 30% above average, while large swaths of the southern states saw increases of 20% or more. Even lost regions recorded irradiance anomalies 10% to 20% above climatology. These clear-sky conditions coincided with significantly lower precipitation, heightening concerns about the existing drought in the Great Plains. While March is typically a transition month prone to volatility, this year it was particularly active. High temperatures and frequent thunderstorm development contributed to an environment that favored persistent sunshine versus cloud-forming moisture in these regions. In contrast, much of the western U.S. and Canada were characterized by below-average solar irradiance. Across most of this region, irradiance was 10% below average in southern areas, and as much as 20% below average in some northern areas. Canada was particularly affected, with anomalies in Quebec near 30% below average. Pressure patterns high in the atmosphere showed signs of a colder, stormier air mass over the northern U.S. and Canada due to a downturn in the jet stream. This configuration allowed moisture from the Pacific to push farther inland, causing widespread cloudiness. In the Atlantic, a strong Azores High and a potentially positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may have played a role by redirecting storm tracks and reinforcing the persistent cloudiness over the Northeast. Meanwhile, Central America benefited from generally clear skies. Irradiance was slightly above average across the region, with a notable 30% increase in northeastern Mexico compared to the March norm. This increase appears to be related to high pressure in the Pacific, which brought northerly winds that channeled dry air from the Chihuahuan Desert southward. Solcast generates these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at a 1-2 km resolution on a global scale, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to power irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud tracking forecasts. This data is used by over 350 companies managing over 300 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
