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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry. The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was assessed at $22.068/kg, or $0.050/W this week, unchanged from the previous week on the back of heard buy-sell indications. On October 1, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced a preliminary ruling on countervailing duties (CVD) on solar cells and modules imported from Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with rates ranging from 0.14% to 292.61%, depending on the company and region. This has been the most significant development in the global polysilicon market in recent months. Although market sources generally agree that CVD rates from some major Chinese manufacturers were lower than expected, they believe that a boost in spot transactions is unlikely until the preliminary anti-dumping (AD) ruling on November 27, as AD rates have historically been 10-20 times higher than CVD rates. While global polysilicon market activity remains relatively quiet as buyers await AD rate updates before deciding whether to resume previous purchasing volumes, the effects of potential changes – such as the US presidential election, updates to a solar policy mix including the AD/CVD tariff for the four Southeast Asian countries, product traceability requirements and local manufacturing incentives – are already reportedly being felt, with delays to solar projects emerging as a result. Industry sources expect a revival of the global spot polysilicon market if the overall tax rate for certain manufacturers in the four Southeast Asian countries that export cells and modules to the US - including Section 201, AD and CVD tariffs - remains below 30%, as this would allow them to maintain some of their production capacity. China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment of monograde polysilicon prices in the country, held steady at 33.625 yuan ($4.73)/kg, or 0.076 yuan/W this week. China Mono Premium, the price of monograde polysilicon used for the production of n-type ingots, also held steady at 40.125 yuan/kg, or 0.090 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week. The expected revival of the polysilicon market after the Chinese Golden Week holiday has yet to materialise, as wafer manufacturers purchasing interest remains low and orders are only being placed to cover basic production needs. Polysilicon futures trading, initially intended to ease inventory overhang, has shown little practical effect. Chinese polysilicon producers have expressed concern over a clause in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rules that prohibits storing polysilicon produced more than three months in advance for futures trading, even though companies typically offer a 1-2 year warranty on their products. A maximum storage period of nine months has also been set, prompting some traders to postpone their procurement plans as the current lack of trading activity has shaken their confidence in storage. Major Chinese polysilicon producers are tightening their grip on prices and market share, especially a major polysilicon producer Siemens plans to increase its new production capacity in the fourth quarter. In addition, a key producer of granular polysilicon FBR has recently increased its production pace, according to sources. Experts agree on the need to continue working to address the polysilicon overcapacity. The most likely and optimistic scenario for the Chinese polysilicon market in the fourth quarter is that current prices will remain unchanged. |
