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One analysis suggests that the value of rooftop solar will increase by 19% to 25% due to warming and changing weather patterns, which will increase demand for on-site electricity.
Global actions, or inactions, are likely to cause average planetary temperatures to rise by more than 1.5°C due to escalating carbon dioxide levels. This potential increase has led researchers to examine the consequences using the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenario 4.5, which predicts a 4.5°C rise. Many scientists warn that such warming could pose significant global challenges.
In response to these conclusions, a team from the University of Michigan, in the United States, predicts that warming induced by climate change could increase the value of solar energy installed on residential rooftops by between 19% and 25%. This expected increase in value is mainly attributed to higher demand for on-site electricity, complemented by a slight boost from increased solar electricity generation due to fewer cloudy days expected in the future.
The logic behind the first factor is simple: rising temperatures will require greater use of air conditioning, which will translate into greater electricity consumption. Consequently, buildings can get more value from the solar energy generated on their roofs by using it immediately. This direct use reduces reliance on net metering and decreases reliance on distribution and transmission lines.
The study estimates that climate change could increase the total cooling energy of homes in several US cities by between 40% and 100%. The impact, however, varies by location; Miami saw the most significant increase, while Minneapolis, located much further north, saw a slight decline in the economic benefits of rooftop solar for homes, specifically in terms of cooling costs. Among the 17 cities analyzed, Minneapolis was the only one that recorded a reduction in electricity consumption, due to its increasingly temperate climate.
Numerically, the analysis indicates that the electricity needed to cool these places, measured in kilowatt-hours per year per square meter, will go from 5, 11 and 24 kWh/m2 in cold, temperate and warm cities to 9, 16 and 31 kWh /m2, respectively, at the end of the century.
A second level of analysis examined the potential generation of electricity by solar panels under future weather conditions, revealing mixed results. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce the efficiency of solar energy, thereby decreasing its production. On the contrary, the models suggest fewer clouds on average, which would increase generation.
Meteorological effects, which vary from one region to another, considerably influence solar production. For example, persistent high pressures in the upper atmosphere could raise solar irradiance up to 30% above normal, setting new records for solar generation and temperature in North America, as observed in mid-February 2024.
The research team indicated that these two variables, considered in the 17 cities, neutralize each other.
Other considerations for the value of residential rooftop solar in times of climate complexity include improving local resilience and reducing the need for costly transmission and distribution grid infrastructure upgrades. |
