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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its first report on the importance of battery energy storage technology in the energy transition. According to their conclusions, tripling the capacity of renewable energy by 2030 would require 1,500 GW of battery storage.
Batteries need to increase global energy storage capacity six-fold if the world is to meet 2030 targets, after deployment in the electricity sector more than doubled last year, the IEA says in its first assessment. of the situation of the entire battery ecosystem. In this scenario, battery energy storage systems would account for 90% of the increase and pumped hydro would account for most of the rest.
In its report “ Batteries and safe energy transitions ”, the Paris-based watchdog describes batteries as critical to achieving the climate and energy goals outlined at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai. According to the report, battery growth will outpace that of almost all other clean energy technologies in 2023, driven by falling costs, innovation and supportive industrial policies.
There was strong growth in utility-scale battery projects, behind-the-meter batteries, mini-grids and home solar systems, adding a total of 42 GW of battery storage capacity worldwide, with an increase year-on-year of more than 130%. Meanwhile, electric vehicle (EV) battery deployment increased by 40% in 2023, with 14 million new electric cars representing the vast majority of batteries used in the energy sector.
“Despite the continued use of lithium-ion batteries in billions of personal devices around the world, the energy sector now accounts for more than 90% of annual lithium-ion battery demand,” the report said. the IEA. “This is up from 50% of the energy sector in 2016, when the total lithium-ion battery market was 10 times smaller.”
In less than 15 years, battery costs have fallen more than 90%, one of the fastest declines ever seen in clean energy technologies. However, the report concludes that costs must continue to fall without compromising quality or technology to scale up batteries on a global scale.
It is expected that further innovation in battery chemistry and manufacturing could reduce the global average costs of lithium-ion batteries by another 40% between 2023 and 2030, and introduce sodium-ion batteries to the market. According to the IEA, sodium-ion batteries will represent less than 10% of electric vehicle batteries until 2030, but will make up an increasing share of stationary storage batteries as their costs are 30% lower than of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.
“The combination of photovoltaic solar energy and batteries is today competitive with new coal plants in India. And in the coming years it will be cheaper than new coal plants in China and gas plants in the United States. “Batteries are changing the game before our eyes,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
According to the IEA report, cost cuts also make standalone battery storage more competitive than natural gas peaking options.
In the most ambitious scenario, total spending on batteries for all applications will rise to $800 billion in 2030, almost 400% more than in 2023. This means doubling the share of batteries in global clean energy investment in a period of seven years.
Global battery manufacturing has more than tripled in the last three years. Although China produces the majority of batteries today, the report shows that 40% of all announced plans for new battery manufacturing are in advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union.
“If all of those projects are built, those economies would have almost enough manufacturing to meet their own needs through 2030 on the path to net-zero emissions,” the report says. |
