| Work Detail |
Global sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach 17 million this year. Despite near-term challenges in some markets, under current policy settings, almost one in three cars on the road in China in 2030 will be electric, and almost one in five in the United States and the European Union.
More than one in five cars sold worldwide this year will be electric, with increased demand over the next decade remaking the global car industry and significantly reducing oil consumption for road transport, according to the new edition of the report. annual Global EV Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The latest report concludes that global electric car sales are expected to remain strong in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year. In the first quarter, sales grew by around 25% compared to the same period in 2023, maintaining the growth rate observed in the same period of the previous year, but starting from a higher base. The number of electric cars sold worldwide in the first three months of this year is approximately equivalent to that of all of 2020.
By 2024, electric car sales in China are expected to reach 10 million, which will account for around 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, one in nine cars sold is expected to be electric, while in Europe, despite overall weak passenger car sales prospects and the phasing out of subsidies in some countries, Electric cars continue to represent one in every four cars sold.
Last year, global sales of electric cars soared 35%, to almost 14 million. Although demand remained concentrated in China, Europe and the United States, growth also accelerated in some emerging markets, such as Vietnam and Thailand, where electric cars accounted for 15% and 10%, respectively, of all cars sold.
Substantial investment in the electric vehicle supply chain, continued political support and the falling price of electric vehicles (EVs) and their batteries will lead to even more significant changes in the coming years. The report concludes that, according to current political definitions, all other cars sold in the world should be electric by 2035. However, if the energy and climate commitments announced by countries are met in full and on time, two out of three cars sold will be electric in 2035. In this scenario, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles - from passenger cars to vans, trucks, buses and two- and three-wheeled vehicles - avoids the need for about 12 million barrels of oil per day, which which corresponds to the road transport demand of China and Europe combined.
“The continued push for electric cars is clear from our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “The surge in investment in battery manufacturing suggests the electric vehicle supply chain is moving forward to meet automakers’ ambitious expansion plans. As a result, the percentage of electric vehicles on the road is expected to continue to increase rapidly. With current policies alone, it is expected that by 2030 almost one in three cars on Chinese roads will be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and the European Union. “This change will have important ramifications for both the automotive industry and the energy sector.”
Thanks to high levels of investment over the past five years, global electric vehicle battery production capacity is well placed to keep pace with demand, even if demand increases significantly over the next decade.
The EV pricing challenge
However, the pace of the transition to EVs may not be constant and will depend on affordability, the report underlines.
In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper to buy than their conventional equivalents. However, in Europe and the United States, purchase prices for internal combustion engine cars have remained cheaper on average, although intensified market competition and improved battery technologies are expected to reduce prices in the coming years. Even when initial prices are high, the lower running costs of EVs make the initial investment pay for itself over time.
Growing exports of electric cars from Chinese manufacturers, which will account for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could increase downward pressure on purchase prices. Chinese companies, which are also setting up production facilities outside the country, have already seen strong sales of more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023 in overseas markets. This highlights that the composition of the main EV-producing economies differs considerably from the traditional automobile industry.
Charging infrastructure for electric mobility
Ensuring public charging availability keeps pace with electric vehicle sales is crucial for continued growth, according to the report. The number of public charging points installed worldwide increased by 40% in 2023 compared to 2022, with the growth of fast chargers outpacing that of slower ones. However, to achieve a level of electric vehicle deployment in line with the commitments made by governments, charging networks must increase six-fold by 2035. At the same time, political support and careful planning are essential to ensure that The increased demand for electricity from recharging is not achieved by overloading the electrical networks. |
