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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, offers a short analysis of PV module supply and pricing trends.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was assessed at $22.90/kg this week, down slightly by $0.15/kg or 0.65% from to the previous week due to the buying and selling indications heard.
According to an industry source, polysilicon prices outside China remain relatively stable amid the volatility of the Chinese market, with occasional small declines. The source attributes this stability mainly to the short-term absence of an increase in global polysilicon supply. Additionally, products such as wafers, cells and modules manufactured outside of China remain more expensive than those manufactured domestically, further reinforcing the global polysilicon premium.
The long-term trend of polysilicon prices outside China depends largely on the types of modules that are allowed to be introduced into the US market, according to one market observer. The source highlighted that the further the supply chain for modules that can enter the United States moves away from China, the higher the premium that polysilicon produced outside of China can maintain.
Recently, a major Indian solar company announced the start of ingot and wafer production with a planned capacity of 2 GW per year, sparking great interest among market participants. According to a Chinese source, this fact has inevitably sparked speculation, linking it to the Chinese export of 990 tons of polysilicon to India in the fourth quarter of last year. Another person familiar with the global polysilicon market stressed the importance of monitoring the origin of this Indian manufacturers polysilicon, as it could mean the possible establishment of another photovoltaic supply chain, parallel to that of China and aimed at the US market.
China Mono Grade, OPIS assessment of polysilicon prices in the country, was valued this week at 48,167 yuan ($6,659/kg), down 4.00 yuan/kg, or 7.67% from to the previous week. This represents the largest weekly decline since the beginning of the year, according to OPIS data.
Multiple sources attribute this current price decline primarily to falling p-type polysilicon prices from Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers. The low proportion of n-type polysilicon produced by these manufacturers, coupled with weak demand for polysilicon of type p in the later stages of the production chain, makes further price reductions necessary to stimulate sales and recover funds.
Polysilicon market sources report that the price of n-type polysilicon, with total metal impurities not exceeding 0.5 parts per billion by weight (ppbw), is about 55 yuan/kg. Meanwhile, the price of P-type polysilicon ranges between 45 and 50 yuan/kg.
One source highlighted the importance of the current price of granular fluidized bed reactor (FBR) polysilicon used for the production of n-type wafers, which is between 51 and 52 yuan/kg. This price has surpassed that of Siemens p-type polysilicon for rod-shaped ingot processing, where prices for granular FBR polysilicon were previously lower. This investment indicates a pessimistic outlook for P-type polysilicon.
According to one market participant, there has been no equipment maintenance or production reduction among polysilicon companies. Additionally, new production capacities from two leading manufacturers will be introduced this month, each with an annual production capacity of 100,000 and 200,000 tons, respectively.
As a result, the price of polysilicon is expected to remain low in the near future. “Only when the supply of polysilicon decreases in the future will we be able to see a stop to the fall and a stabilization of prices,” explained the expert.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report . |
