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It will be visible next Monday in Mexico, the United States and Canada, and part of Spain. To compensate for the possible loss of solar energy, power grid operators will have to be prepared to turn to other sources to ensure their stability, as was done during the 2017 and 2023 eclipse episodes.
On April 8, 2024, a solar eclipse will begin off the Pacific coast of Mexico around 11:07 a.m. PDT, traveling through parts of the US and Canada until 5:19 a.m. pm EDT (Eastern Time). Since the sky will completely darken in the path of totality for up to six minutes, meteorologists are studying the possible effect on solar power generation.
In Spain, according to the National Geographic Institute , it will be visible “in the westernmost Canary Islands (El Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera and Tenerife) and the extreme northwest of the peninsula (Galicia), it can be perceived with very low magnitudes.” It should be noted that the experience will be brief, as sunset will occur shortly after the start of the eclipse.
The last eclipse took place in the United States in 2017, and it didnt have much effect on solar energy production, however, solar energy contributed only 1.3% to the electrical grid at that time, according to the Information Administration of the United States Energy Agency (EIA). The EIA estimates that solar energy will contribute 6% of US electricity generation this year, a significant increase from 2017, and enough to cause some concern about the effect of the eclipse.
Solcast, a solar modeling and forecasting company owned by DNV, reported that the impact on solar generation across the United States could be greater than any previous eclipse due to increased solar power generation.
Solcast used its irradiance model in clear skies, assuming no clouds or smoke. Due to the continued growth of solar capacity, the grid impact of these large solar events is increasing, and this eclipse will have a greater impact on power generation than previous eclipses. The company predicts that the global effects of the eclipse will cost up to 16% of the total daily clear-sky irradiance in some areas.
Grid operators are preparing for the worst-case scenario, which would be a perfectly sunny day in which solar power would constantly power the grid. In areas along the path of totality, solar generation will decrease and drop to zero, only to increase again a few minutes later.
According to Solcast, the maximum duration will be more than 90 minutes of affected generation and a total loss of up to six minutes. The effect across the country will be a faster than normal “ramp rate,” that is, the rate at which solar generation decreases and then increases again.
Across all networks, Solcast estimates that maximum losses will amount to 39.9 GWh, of which 16.2 GWh will come from domestic rooftop solar. “Although it is too early to predict the impact of the clouds, the effects of this eclipse will be significant on solar generation across the country,” said Hugh Cutcher, chief data scientist at Solcast.
To compensate for the potential loss of solar energy flowing to the grid, grid operators will have to be prepared to rely on other sources to ensure grid stability, as was done during the 2017 and 2023 eclipse episodes.
The Texas power company ERCOT, for example, is watching the event as it supplies power to 90% of the state and the states grid will be affected by the eclipse from 12:10 pm to 3:10 pm CDT. Center), or during peak production hours. According to Solcast, ERCOT could see a loss of nearly 11% of normal generation.
ERCOT posted on
Learning from the past
Looking back at the 2017 eclipse that blacked out the sun for 76% of Northern California and 62% of Southern California on August 17, the EIA had estimated that more than 21 GW of installed PV systems were would be affected. Power companies expected output from solar plants to fall by almost 66%, with a sharp downward ramp followed by an accelerated upward ramp. To reduce “strain” on the power grid, the then-chairman of the California Public Utilities Commission urged residents to reduce power consumption between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. that day.
Since the increase and decrease in consumption had almost no ill effects, it is not likely that a call to reduce electricity consumption will be made with the 2024 eclipse. In fact, during the 2017 eclipse, which also affected Georgia, Georgia Power “barely registered a blink.” Georgia Power had livestreamed the eclipse and watched as solar power decreased significantly during the three-minute totality of the eclipse, yet no grid failure occurred. |
