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In 2023, despite a record-breaking expansion of 60 gigawatts direct current (GWDC) of solar PV capacity across Europe, solar power generation only experienced a modest increase of approximately 20%. However, projections for 2024 paint a different picture.
According to Rystad Energy, solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is forecasted to spike by around 50 terawatt-hours (TWh) this year, surpassing all other generation sources for the first time. This surge is attributed to significant capacity installations throughout the region, with Germany spearheading the initiative. Additionally, while wind power generation is expected to rise in 2024, the growth rate will not match the previous year’s surge when wind energy output increased by 50 TWh due to additional capacity installations and favorable weather conditions, particularly in the last quarter.
The energy landscape in Germany underwent a notable transformation in 2023, transitioning from a major electricity exporter to a net importer. This shift was prompted by the closure of nuclear power plants, decreased solar energy generation, and the availability of cheaper electricity from other markets. With conventional coal generation decreasing, Germany increasingly relied on imports from France and Denmark, underscoring the need to diversify energy sources for enhanced security and reduced dependence on imports.
Germany is poised to lead the European solar power market once again in 2024, continuing the momentum from 2023. Moreover, an anticipated improvement in solar radiation this year is expected to restore generation levels to previous norms after a relatively lackluster performance in the preceding year.
The record-breaking growth observed in Germany in 2023, driven primarily by the installation of rooftop PV systems, marked a significant milestone. Approximately 6.5 GWDC of rooftop solar was installed for residential use, powering around 1.3 million households annually. An additional 3.5 GWDC was installed in the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, with rooftop installations accounting for over 70% of the added capacity, playing a pivotal role in the expansion of solar PV in Germany and across Europe.
Looking ahead, Rystad Energy anticipates robust additions from renewables throughout 2024, with solar leading the growth trajectory in terms of both capacity and generation. Coupled with more stable output from nuclear generation, this trend is expected to drive a further decline in fossil fuel demand for power.
Vegard Wiik Vollset, Head of Renewables & Power EMEA Research at Rystad Energy, underscores the significance of Europe’s transition towards renewable energy, noting that the growth in renewable sources is more than sufficient to meet the region’s demand, resulting in a decline in fossil fuel usage. |
