| Work Detail |
In 2024, the global energy landscape continues its dynamic and transformative journey, marked by disruptions, challenges, and opportunities. COP28 concluded the previous year with a groundbreaking agreement to reduce methane emissions, a pivotal step in addressing global environmental concerns.
Rystad Energy, led by CEO Jarand Rystad, an influential player in advising governments, organizations, and companies across the energy sector, anticipates several key trends shaping the industry in the coming year. Jarand Rystad emphasizes the pivotal role of 2023 in renewable energy expansion, with solar PV exceeding expectations and global coal demand likely reaching its peak.
Geopolitical Influences on the Oil Market: Oil, often termed the most political commodity, faces a landscape shaped by political changes in over 70 countries with upcoming general elections. Factors such as the US-Ukraine relations, EU’s climate policies, tensions in the South China Sea, and Middle East conflicts will significantly impact oil markets. Insights from Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President, Oil Market Research, contribute to understanding the geopolitical nuances.
Natural Gas Supporting Energy Transition: Natural gas is positioned to address the energy trilemma (security, affordability, sustainability) in 2024. While greenfield LNG project investments may slow down, global gas production is expected to grow by 3%. Insights from Xi Nan, Senior Vice President, Gas and LNG Market Research, provide valuable perspectives on the role of gas in the global energy transition.
Mergers and Acquisitions Extend to Supply Chain: The consolidation trend seen in upstream oil and gas is expected to extend into the supply chain in 2024. With stabilized interest rates, suppliers are likely to explore strategic acquisitions to enhance capacity, particularly in oilfield services and the clean energy sector. Audun Martinsen, Head of Supply Chain Research, sheds light on the strategic movements within the supply chain.
Surge in Clean Hydrogen Projects: The clean hydrogen sector is witnessing a surge, fueled by maturing policies and commercial-scale projects globally. Key feasibility studies are expected to provide clarity on new use cases. In the US, Artem Abramov, Head of Clean Tech Research, anticipates a surge in clean hydrogen project approvals and potential cancellations, influenced by tax credit regulations.
Muted US Shale Growth Benefits OPEC: Evolving strategies in the US shale sector are expected to keep oil prices elevated, as shale investments are unlikely to grow significantly in 2024. Investments in the shale patch are not expected to grow in 2024, keeping activity and output relatively flat. Insights from Espen Erlingsen, Head of Upstream Research, provide a comprehensive view of the dynamics between US shale and OPEC.
Renewable Growth Continues: 2024 is projected to be another record-breaking year for solar and wind markets, with over 510 GW of solar PV and wind capacity added globally. Carlos Torres Diaz, Head of Renewables & Power Research, emphasizes the need for governments to provide the right incentives for renewable energy projects to ensure continued momentum.
Potential OPEC+ Style Group in Refined Products Market (China): China’s downstream oil sector is signaling a shift with changes in crude import quotas and product export allowances. This may lead to the emergence of a supply management framework, similar to OPEC+. Mukesh Sahdev, Head of Downstream, provides insights into China’s downstream oil sector strategies and potential impacts on global markets.
Offshore Wind Faces Challenges but Maintains Long-Term Outlook: While challenges such as inflation and supply chain issues persist, authorities are supporting long-term goals in offshore wind projects. Alexander Flotre, Vice President & Head of Offshore Wind, highlights the sector’s record FIDs in 2023 and expectations for continued momentum.
Decline in Coal Generation as Asian Growth Slows: Global coal-fired power generation is anticipated to decline in 2024, influenced by evolving Asian power grids. Steve Hulton, Head of Global Coal Industry Research, predicts a small but significant 0.3% annual decline, reflecting a shift away from coal in the power mix.As 2024 unfolds, these trends, articulated by industry experts, are expected to shape the energy industry, influencing policies, investments, and the ongoing global transition towards sustainable and cleaner energy sources. |
