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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that Brazilian solar energy production exceeded expectations in December, with the majority of the countrys utility-scale assets receiving irradiance well above of the average irradiance. Argentina experienced storms throughout the month, although the south of the country remained mostly dry and recorded one of the highest daily irradiances on the continent.
El Niño has shown some signs of expected patterns across South America, as anomalous winds kept Brazil dry and sunny, while Argentina was drenched in storms in December, according to data analyzed by Solcast, via the Solcast API . Brazilian solar energy production will have exceeded December expectations, as most of the countrys utility-scale assets received much higher than average irradiance. Argentina experienced storms throughout the month, although the south of the country remained mostly dry and recorded some of the highest daily irradiances on the continent.
Brazilian solar producers benefited from a sunnier than normal December, with most areas receiving irradiance 20% to 30% higher than the average for the month. The anomalous easterly winds kept the humidity of the Amazon inland, with lower cloudiness that reduced precipitation and increased irradiance. Most of Brazils commercial-scale assets are concentrated in the east, so production during the month was higher than expected. Rio de Janeiro also had a sunny month, receiving more irradiance in December than they have seen since 2014.
Without the tropical effects further north, Argentina saw a relatively humid air mass, leading to ideal conditions for large convective storms. Several large storms mid-month and on Christmas Day caused flash flooding and reduced December irradiance well below average. Localized effects can be seen in the daily irradiance figures, including December 18, in the image above. On the contrary, the south of the country enjoyed much drier and sunnier conditions, around the December average, with an average daily irradiance significantly higher than that of the north.
Some of the normal expectations of the meteorological effects of El Niño have been tempered, matching patterns observed around the world. On the coast of Ecuador and Peru, precipitation and cloudiness usually increase in El Niño years, but this December the irradiance has been between neutral and slightly higher than normal. The Atacama Desert receives the highest irradiation levels in the world, since the region is located on the west coast, under the subtropical ridge and sheltered by the Andes mountain range. In December, the highest daily irradiance on the continent was recorded. The next region with the greatest irradiation was the coast and southern Argentina, where westerly winds and sunny days persisted in the lee of the Andes throughout the month of December.
Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2 km resolution on a global scale, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud tracking forecasts. This information is used by more than 300 companies that manage more than 150 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
