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From January to October 2023, solar PV contributed 5.78% of US electricity, with just over 6% coming from the source in October alone.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a division of the U.S. Department of Energy, released its Monthly Electric Power report for the first ten months of 2023. The data shows steady growth in solar energy, supported by high installation volumes in 2023, and a notable increase in wind energy production towards the end of the year.
Data from PV Intel indicates that from January to October 2023, solar energy accounted for 5.78% of US electricity, up from 4.98% during the same period a year earlier. This marks a 16% increase in solar energy generation over the previous year.
During the rolling twelve-month period (November 2022 to October 2023), solar generation contributed 5.36% of total US electricity, up from 4.63% in the previous October. This also represents a 16% increase, over a somewhat different time period.
From another perspective, in October alone, solars share of total generation remained slightly above 6% and is expected to decline, similar to the 29% decline seen in 2022.
If 2023 concludes with an estimated 16% increase in solar generation, it would be the second-lowest year of growth since 2018, when only a 15% increase was recorded. This modest growth in 2018 was essentially a hangover after the 2016 boom, which saw a notable 53% growth over 2015. Assuming a constant 16% growth rate, 2023 solar generation is projected to reach approximately 5 .46%. However, this figure could be slightly higher, taking into account the significant capacity of solar installations deployed as the year progresses.
Despite reaching 5.78% so far in 2023, the rate is expected to decrease during the winter months. For example, in October 2022, solar energy generated 4.98% of all US electricity, but by the end of the year, this figure had fallen to 4.7% due to the decline in generation in November and December, which coincide with the shortest days of the year.
Fortunately, this decline in solar production aligns with an increase in wind generation. As shown in the graph above, when solar production decreases in November and December, wind generation begins to increase, peaking in March. In October, wind and solar combined produced 16.78% of US electricity generation.
In October, several states also achieved notable growth in solar generation compared to the previous year. South Dakota, for example, saw an extraordinary increase with a 3,605% increase in solar generation. Montana also saw a significant increase of 398%. These dramatic increases were largely due to the commissioning of large utility-scale solar installations, which dwarfed existing solar capacities in the states.
Most states that saw high growth in solar generation started with a baseline of less than 2% of their electricity derived from solar energy. This low starting point means that even the addition of a single large installation can have a significant impact on your overall solar production. However, states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and, to a lesser extent, Delaware, have seen growth from higher base percentages. For example, Colorado solar generation grew 49% due to the commissioning of seven utility-scale solar installations, including two major plants with capacities of 325 MWac and 248 MWac.
It is important to note that monthly data can sometimes include anomalies that can affect its reliability. For example, a recent decline in jet stream activity off the West Coast led to lower humidity levels, affecting areas from California to New Mexico and the Midwest. As a result, irradiance levels were 10% higher than usual in October.
With more than 30 GW of solar expected to be deployed in 2023, EIA Form 860-M, known as the “Monthly Inventory of Electrical Generators,” is especially active. In October alone, the document reports that 36 commercial-scale solar energy installations were commissioned, adding a substantial 2,466 GWac capacity. |
