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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that various patterns have affected solar generation across North America as of late December. The south experienced irradiance up to 30% higher than the long-term December average, as a result of a persistent Atlantic high pressure system driving easterly winds. that kept the humidity of the Gulf of Mexico offshore.
North America experienced a sharp contrast in irradiance levels, driven by a high pressure system in the Atlantic and an intense low pressure in the North Pacific. These varying patterns have impacted solar generation across the continent, particularly driving stronger-than-expected December irradiance in Texas, delivering a Christmas surge in generation for large solar assets in the ERCOT region.
The South experienced irradiance up to 30% higher than the long-term December average, the result of a persistent Atlantic high pressure system driving easterly winds, keeping Gulf of Mexico moisture offshore. On the other hand, Florida, more exposed to the Atlantic, recorded above-average rainfall and irradiance 20% below the long-term average. Likewise, the Northeast experienced a warm, moist air mass from the Southeast Atlantic, bringing storms that left many without power and resulted in above-average precipitation and slightly below-average total irradiance.
As seen in the graph above, Solcast API simulations of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region highlight that 2023 has seen the highest hypothetical production since 2007. This analysis uses current installed capacity at scale and applies weather conditions from previous years to model how much could have been produced with current assets. This December, Texas utility-scale solar generation exceeded seasonal expectations, running 20% ??above the long-term average due to above-average irradiance. Texas is an attractive location for solar energy in the US, as irradiance during the winter months is up to 3 times higher than that observed near the northern US border. In fact, the year-on-year growth of solar power in ERCOT is currently over 50%.
British Columbia and Washington state faced a different scenario, experiencing 30% less irradiance due to an anomalous low pressure in the North Pacific that drove a deep, moist and relatively warm airstream that brought heavy precipitation ashore. . California experienced a slightly cloudier December than usual, with total irradiance between 5% and 10% lower than the long-term average. Meanwhile, the Midwest enjoyed up to 15% above average irradiance as low pressure systems in the Pacific weakened the fronts that typically move eastward across North America in winter. Solcast produces these figures by globally monitoring clouds and aerosols with a resolution of 1 to 2 km, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 300 companies managing more than 150 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
