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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that in November, weather patterns have begun to resemble the signature El Niño, with low pressure in the Pacific Northwest and a current in Enhanced subtropical jet extending from the Pacific across the southern United States. This weekend the skies over North America begin to show their characteristic winter El Niño sign, reinforcing expectations of lower solar production in large areas of the continent, according to Solcast, a DNV company. El Niño events, which cause much warmer waters in the tropical eastern Pacific, tend to extend the subtropical Pacific jet stream, increasing cloud cover in the southern and central United States. As a result of these atmospheric changes, during El Niño winters, large areas of the continental United States tend to experience reduced irradiance. California, the Southwest, the Midwest, the Southeast, and Mexico, in particular, have cloudier conditions compared to average. In contrast, large areas of the Pacific Northwest and Canada tend to receive above-average irradiance. This November, weather patterns have begun to resemble those characteristic of El Niño, with low pressures in the northwest Pacific and a strengthened subtropical jet stream extending from the Pacific across the southern United States. This weekend, we are seeing the beginnings of this El Niño-like pattern in the jet stream, with an enhanced subtropical jet stream across the south and southeast of the continent. This weekends enhanced jet stream is dragging high clouds from Mexico across the southern US. As the jet stream accelerates, the atmosphere becomes unstable, causing low pressures to build up clouds over the Rockies and Midwest regions. Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2 km resolution on a global scale, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, as well as cloud tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 300 companies managing more than 150 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
