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Rethink Energy expects several gigawatts of perovskite PV generation capacity to be built by 2026, in what will be just the beginning of a rise to prominence. Clear advantages are anticipated for this technology in all market segments.
The first will be the handful of companies that currently lead the sector, of which at least five - Microquanta, UtmoLight, GCL System Integration, Caelux and Oxford PV - have launched 100 MW pilot production lines. By 2026, all major silicon manufacturers will have opted for perovskite products.
Rethink believes that many companies are already capable of manufacturing perovskite solar panels that would be competitive today. These companies also have a second generation of perovskite cells in the laboratory. Within three years, next-generation products will become full-size panels and be viable for mass production.
The second generation of perovskites will be superior to current conventional options and will outperform rooftop silicon photovoltaics, with implications for building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). Perovskites will make building-integrated photovoltaics a relevant business.
The perovskite cells currently being developed are good enough to allow startups to compete with the $100 billion mainstream industry that will soon have to adopt perovskite. Rethink Energy sees perovskites taking over solar energy in the 2030s, regardless of whether the sector reaches 1 TW or 2 TW of power.
Major investments
These expectations are supported by the launch of multiple production lines in the last 12 months, with many more in progress. Another positive development is the expansion of production capacity by manufacturing equipment companies that supply laser marking and other equipment necessary for production lines.
The most reliable proof that the commercialization of perovskite is just around the corner is that the first major investments are being made by leading companies. Qcells, in South Korea, has invested $100 million in a perovskite pilot line. In the United States, First Solar has acquired the Swedish perovskite company Evolar AB for 32 million dollars, to which another 42 million will be added if the established R&D objectives are achieved. Longi, the worlds largest manufacturer of silicon solar cells, continues to publish increasingly better results on the efficiency of tandem perovskite and heterojunction cells.
New perovskite companies appear every month, whether they are startups completing a series A funding round, companies entering the solar industry through semiconductor manufacturing, or silicon giants getting ahead of the curve. events. Since the Rethink Energy report was written, these companies have been joined by Sekisui Chemical, a Japanese plastics company that promises to sell perovskites by 2025.
Most emerging companies, especially Chinese ones, will focus their efforts on thin-film products, taking CPV from its current negligible scale to representing a large percentage of all distributed solar installations. . At first, these thin film products will be single junction perovskite devices, but over time they will increasingly move to tandem technology in combination with any other thin film.
The tunability of the perovskite absorption spectra is one of the main advantages of this technology over other thin films. This factor means that perovskites can be combined with any other photovoltaic semiconductor, including other perovskites. While single-junction silicon has a theoretical efficiency limit of 29.4%, a perovskite-perovskite tandem could reach 43%. As more junctions are added, the technical potential increases: the theoretical limit for a triple junction perovskite is 50%.
Much of the technologys potential will be unveiled over the next decade, continuing the rollercoaster of record-breaking results that perovskites have been on since they emerged from dye-sensitized solar energy in 2009. They are now tying with existing options and will soon They will overcome them.
While most startups are dedicated to thin film, the first and largest Western perovskite companies are already dedicated to tandem devices. When major manufacturers enter the fray, they will also do so using tandem devices. In the case of First Solar, it will be with perovskite-cadmium telluride, while others will do it with silicon-perovskite heterojunction. Rethink Energy expects these tandems to dominate first the rooftop segment in the mid-2030s, then the entire solar sector in the 2040s.
Single-junction perovskites may find a niche as a cost-effective repowering option, and perovskites have inherent advantages in every segment imaginable – EV roofs, satellites, indoor devices – and in each case, there will be a dedicated subtype of perovskites.
Rethink Energys forecast is a minimum case on two levels. First, perovskites will be so disproportionately profitable that, once the tipping point is reached, they will be adopted at least as quickly as we have anticipated, and possibly much faster. Second, the superior performance and price of perovskites have the potential to enable immense additional solar demand, including futuristic green hydrogen complexes, among other things, at a scale that silicon alone cannot enable.
China will dominate the field of perovskite manufacturing and installation, but only because it is the largest market, with the largest solar industry. Perovskite will not be as dominated by China as silicon photovoltaics has been. Perovskite will play a role in Europe and the United States efforts to regain a share of global solar manufacturing, while India, which is still transitioning from multicrystalline solar to monocrystalline passivated-emitter-back-contact solar, will take longer. in adapting. |
