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Global demand for sodium-ion batteries is expected to grow to just under 70 GWh in 2033, from 10 GWh in 2025, at a 27% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to UK research firm IDTechEx market.
Although still in its infancy, sodium-ion technology represents a viable alternative to lithium-ion battery technologies. With better raw material costs, better safety and better sustainability credentials, sodium-ion promises to ease the pressure on lithium-ion supply chains.
As sodium-ion battery commercialization efforts intensify, IDTechEx forecasts that some 10 GWh of sodium-ion batteries will be installed by 2025, as significant manufacturing capabilities and supply lines come online. existing lithium-ion to be converted to sodium-ion production.
According to the British market research company, sodium-ion batteries are expected to grow to 70 GWh by 2033, at a year-on-year rate of 27%. “Growth is likely to be faster than anticipated once the technology is reliable, qualified, bankable and available,” he adds.
Wood Mackenzies forecast above is more conservative. According to the American Scottish data company, sodium ion batteries are expected to partly replace lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in electric passenger vehicles and energy storage, reaching 20 GWh by 2030 in the base case scenario.
At present, production is mainly limited to pilot plants, with some smaller factories being commissioned. However, IDTechEx calculates that “capacities that have been publicly announced by various commodity manufacturers will alone add up to well over 100 GWh in the next three years”.
IDTechEx claims in its latest report that it has identified some 15 companies developing their own Na-ion battery technologies. It has also analyzed the patents and has discovered that China is taking the lead again.
For example, battery industry heavyweight CATL launched its first generation sodium ion battery in 2021, with an energy density of 160 Wh/kg and promised an increase to 200 Wh/kg. Earlier this year, he confirmed that Chinas Chery will be the first automaker to use its sodium-ion battery technology.
HiNa Battery, which emerged from the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2017, last year became the worlds first company to launch a gigawatt-hour sodium-ion battery production line. It also revealed plans to expand capacity to 5 GWh.
Last week, BYD subsidiary FinDreams said it had found a partner in Huaihai Holding Group to start producing sodium-ion batteries in Xuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone in Jiangsu province. In a press release, the companies say the joint venture will be the worlds largest supplier of sodium-ion batteries for mini- and micro-vehicles.
Until now, sodium-ion batteries have been used mainly in electric two-wheelers and for stationary energy storage, due to their lower energy density compared to lithium-ion batteries. The sodium-ion is three times heavier than its lithium counterpart and has a lower redox potential, which translates into an energy density that is at least 30% lower.
Sodium-ion batteries are estimated to be 20-40% cheaper, but the challenge is bringing the technology to scale. Therefore, significant savings over lithium-ion batteries are unlikely, at least initially.
According to an IDTechEx study, the average cost of a Na-ion cell is $87/kWh, taking into account the different types of chemistry. By the end of the decade, the production cost of Na-ion cells that use mainly iron and manganese will probably bottom out at around $40/kWh, which would be about $50/kWh at the pack level, estimates the company. company. |
