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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, reports that global polysilicon negotiations remain difficult, as buyers and sellers continue to struggle to reach agreement on prices amid a persistent supply-demand imbalance. It also reveals that Chinas polysilicon futures market could see a further 13% drop for contracts for delivery in November 2025. The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), OPISs benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, was valued this week at $18.917/kg or $0.040/W, reflecting a 1.64% drop based on reported buy/sell indications. Global polysilicon negotiations reportedly remain difficult, as buyers and sellers continue to struggle to reach price agreements amid a persistent supply-demand imbalance. According to market sources, monthly solar-grade polysilicon production currently remains above 5,000 metric tons (MT). Inventories are estimated to be around 25,000 MT, a level sufficient to support approximately 12 GW of downstream manufacturing capacity. A market participant confirmed that global polysilicon sales currently rely heavily on the execution of long-term contracts. However, fulfilling these agreements has become increasingly difficult, as exporting solar products to the US is becoming more complicated amid a complex and evolving trade environment. As a result, the source noted that production cuts have emerged as a key strategy for suppliers seeking to manage inventory levels and stabilize the market. In Southeast Asia, major buyers are reportedly continuing limited ingot production, in part to meet minimum purchase obligations under long-term supply agreements. One manufacturer noted that a portion of its wafer production and associated downstream products has already been withdrawn from the US market. Its current strategic focus for production capacity outside of China has shifted toward the Indian market. This strategic reorientation has indirectly weakened global demand for polysilicon due to Indias ability to accept downstream products made with Chinese polysilicon. Looking ahead, sources agree that further price reductions may be the only viable solution to alleviate inventory pressure. Meanwhile, market concerns are growing over the expected commercial launch of a new polysilicon plant in the Middle East early next year, which could exacerbate the current global supply glut. China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment of domestic mono-grade polysilicon prices, held steady this week at 30.75 yuan ($4.18)/kg, or 0.065 yuan/W. China Mono Premium, OPIS’s assessment of mono-grade polysilicon used in the production of n-type ingots, fell 3.06% week-on-week to 35.625 yuan/kg, or 0.075 yuan/W. The price of China Mono Premium polysilicon has fallen 11.76% since its peak in the first week of April. According to market sources, some wafer producers have increased the use of degraded polysilicon raw material in the production of n-type wafers in an effort to reduce costs. As a result, the sources indicated that a significant portion of the nearly 400,000 MT of polysilicon inventory consists of high-quality n-type material, while degraded polysilicon suitable for n-type applications has been largely consumed. At the same time, market sources noted that total polysilicon production in June could experience a slight increase compared to May, reaching around 110,000 MT. This expected increase is primarily due to the resumption of operations at facilities in Yunnan and Sichuan, supported by the start of the rainy season and the resulting decline in hydropower costs. While this rebound could be partially offset by reductions or temporary shutdowns at thermal-dependent facilities, one source cautioned that the regional shift in production might not result in a fully balanced output, which could impact overall supply levels. Overall, market participants expect continued weakness in the polysilicon spot market for the remainder of 2025, driven by persistent inventory pressure. This outlook is reflected in futures market trends. Data from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on June 9 shows that settlement prices for June 2025 delivery stood at 36.660 yuan/kg, declining to 31.865 yuan/kg for November delivery, a 13.08% drop over the period. |
