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With distributors well supplied and centralized generation projects on hold, the value of imports to Brazil fell 33% in the first four months of 2025 to US$722 million, compared to US$1.079 billion in the same period in 2024. At the same time, there is greater diversification of photovoltaic equipment entering the country, with new trade routes that reduce costs and charging times towards the Northeast and North regions. Imports of photovoltaic modules, cells, and systems declined in early 2025, according to new data from Brazils Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade. Brazil imported $722.2 million FOB of these products from January to April, down from $1.08 billion the previous year. The decline comes amid several headwinds: a higher import tax, a base interest rate of 14.75%, and the governments decision not to reimburse PV system owners for throttling losses. These factors have led large international developers to abandon the Brazilian market, according to Absolar official Daniel Pansarella. The Brazilian government raised the import tax from 9.6% to 25% at the end of 2024, increasing project capex by more than 8%, according to the consulting firm Greener. The administration also canceled import quotas that would have gradually reduced tax exposure through June 2027. Government officials said the tax increase and the end of exemptions were intended to level the playing field between domestic and imported products. They cited potential job creation and investment in Brazils solar manufacturing sector, which they said should support a projected annual demand of 17.8 GW. However, domestic manufacturing capacity remains at approximately 1 GW per year. From January to April, imports of unassembled cells—key inputs for local module production—fell in value from $1.81 billion to $1.67 billion year-on-year. However, volumes increased 46.7%, from 9 million to 13.2 million units. Imports of complete photovoltaic systems, which typically include multiple components in addition to modules, also increased in both value and volume. In 2024, Brazil imported $2.62 billion in FOB value of photovoltaic modules, cells, and systems. Of that total, assembled modules accounted for 99.7% of the value ($2.61 billion), unassembled cells 0.22% ($5.72 million), and photovoltaic generators 0.8% ($2.27 million). The total value fell from $3.8 billion in 2023, but the volume of imported units increased to 476 million in 2024 from 198 million the previous year. Greener estimated that Brazil imported about 22 GW of capacity in 2024, up from 17.5 GW in 2023. Diversified trade In 2024, 46% of imports by value entered through the Port of Santos in São Paulo (US$1.21 billion), followed by São Francisco do Sul in Santa Catarina (US$270 million) and Paranaguá in Paraná (US$262 million). However, by April 2025, the share of these ports had fallen to 40.1%, 3.2%, and 9.7%, respectively. At Salvador Customs, the share of total imports rose from 8.6% in 2024 to 12.3% at the beginning of 2025. By unit count, Santos handled 45% of imports in 2024 but only 10.9% in early 2025. Suape took the lead, increasing its share from 18% in 2024 to 29% by April. Thiago Rios, CEO of MTR Solar, said most equipment still arrives through ports in Brazils southeast region and must be shipped long distances inland, increasing costs and logistical risks. He noted that new trade routes could decentralize operations and alleviate bottlenecks. New routes between China and Brazil could accelerate this shift. In April, a direct shipping line began operating from the port of Gaolan in Zhuhai, China, to the Brazilian ports of Santana (Amapá) and Salvador (Bahia). The route avoids intermediate stops and follows a route through the Strait of Malacca and the Cape of Good Hope. Pansarella said the new connection reduces transit time by up to 15 days and could cut logistics costs by more than 30%. Brazils Ministry of Ports and Airports said the route shortens delivery times to 30-35 days. The Port of Pecém, in Ceará, is also expected to benefit, reducing freight times from China to about 30 days. Rios said faster and more frequent shipments could transform the supply chain, especially since China remains the main source of modules and inverters. Logistics hubs near new ports of entry could amplify the benefits. To reach more regions, domestic cabotage, or short-sea coastal shipping, must be expanded, Pansarella added, as the new international routes will not serve all ports. In distributed generation, Rios and Pansarella agreed that logistics improvements will only yield benefits after distributors exhaust current excess inventory, which could take up to six months. However, predictable delivery schedules would allow companies to maintain tighter inventories and reduce the need for large safety stocks. Railway plans In addition to supporting imports of industrial and technological inputs from Asia, the new maritime corridor also serves Brazils main agricultural and mining hubs, making Santana and Salvador strategic export ports. Brazil is also studying a new trade route with China across the Pacific. The proposed Brazil-Peru Bioceanic Corridor would connect Porto Sul in Ilhéus (Bahia) with the Peruvian port of Chancay near Lima. The project would rely on a transcontinental railroad running east to west through Bahia, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and Acre. Brazils Ministry of Transport said China is expected to conduct a new feasibility study. The goal is to create a strategic transoceanic cargo route to expand trade between South America and Asia. Leonardo Ribeiro, national secretary of railway transport, said that Brazil exports $350 billion annually, approximately a third of which goes to China. Of that total, 60% is iron ore and soybeans, which require rail transport for cost and environmental efficiency reasons. The proposed multimodal corridor could shorten delivery times and provide an alternative to congested or poorly maintained routes. Pansarella said rail transport could also reduce logistics costs for heavy solar plant components such as trackers and cables, and potentially even for modules. While new trade routes wont solve the short-term challenges of Brazils PV market, they could reduce costs and delivery times in the long term. Expanding exports could also support domestic electricity demand, which remains a key constraint on solar growth. |
