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Tenders are invited for Lebanese Economic Sector Analysis - Sff: S-018193-003 Closing Date: Tuesday, 21. Jul 2026 Intervention Sector(s): Research & Studies Remuneration range: > 6000 (USD) Duration of Contract: From 31.07.2026 to 31.12.2026 I. Context Since 2019, Lebanon has experienced a severe and prolonged economic, financial and institutional crisis. While selected macroeconomic indicators showed signs of stabilization and economic activity recovered partially in 2025, the recovery remains fragile and is constrained by unresolved banking-sector losses, weak public institutions, infrastructure deficits, high informality, limited access to finance and recurring security shocks. Between 2019 and 2023, GDP contracted by approximately 38%, and over 80% of the population now lives below the poverty line (UNDP Lebanon, 2023). The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98% of its official value since 2019 (Banque du Liban, 2024), and the banking sector remains dysfunctional, with no comprehensive reform undertaken since the onset of the banking crisis. The renewed conflict since March 2026 has further aggravated the situation, triggering mass displacement, infrastructure destruction, and crop losses in the south and the Bekaa Valley. Against the backdrop of chronic fragility, limited state capacity, political fragmentation, macroeconomic instability, and recurring crises, the question increasingly arises which economic activities and development models can realistically generate growth, employment, investment, and sustainable value creation under current conditions and how German development cooperation can effectively contribute to this. There is currently no up-to-date, empirically grounded basis for decision-making to inform a possible future engagement aimed at promoting economic transformation and resilience in Lebanon. In particular, there is no systematic analysis of: An in-depth market, obstacle and opportunity compilation Which economic transformation pathways are realistically achievable under prevailing conditions; How and in which areas structural change can be supported; Which entry points offer the greatest potential for productive employment, economic resilience, and the retention of qualified labor. How private investment can be effectively mobilized. To design most effectively the German technical and financial cooperation to drive economic development, sound, up-to-date evidence base to advise the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) on the strategic design of a possible future engagement is required. Given the scale of structural change required and the limited fiscal space for development cooperation, a well-targeted, evidence-based approach is essential to ensure that future German support is directed towards interventions with the greatest potential for sustainable impact. This analysis is therefore a strategic prerequisite for informed programming decisions, to prioritise effectively, coordinate with other donors, and avoid resource-intensive interventions with limited transformative potential. A confidential annex to these Terms of Reference (Tor) will be shared after the contract has been awarded and a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) has been signed, and will include a stakeholder and consultation overview, and a reference overview of existing studies. In addition, any restrictions will be communicated through the non-disclosure agreement that will be signed by the selected awarded bidder. Before engaging any institution as an implementation partner or primary data source not covered by this annex, the Contractor shall apply GIZs standard integrity and risk screening procedure and document the outcome. II. Tasks to be Performed by the contractor Considering the context outlined above, the guiding question for this assignment should be: Considering the political, institutional and macroeconomic conditions, how can German development cooperation make the most measurable and effective contribution to productive employment, private-sector investment and economic resilience in Lebanon, and through which sectors, instruments and implementation arrangements? The purpose of this assignment is to provide BMZ, GIZ and KFW with an evidence-based strategic decision-making framework for future German development cooperation supporting economic transformation in Lebanon. The study shall identify realistic pathways for productive economic development under conditions of fragility, institutional weakness and macroeconomic instability. It shall assess where German Financial Cooperation (FC) and Technical Cooperation (TC) can generate the greatest additionality and sustainable impact. To this end, the Contractor shall: Analyse the macroeconomic, institutional and political economy context; Identify and compare alternative economic transformation pathways; Assess the competitiveness and feasibility of priority economic sectors and value chains; Analyse cross-cutting constraints affecting productive employment, investment and enterprise development; Assess implementation options and institutional capacities; and Formulate strategic options for future German development cooperation. How to apply 1. Expression of Interest All interested bidders are required to send an email expressing their interest to participate in this tender to LB_quotation@giz.de. This will enable GIZs Procurement Unit to share any clarifications, amendments, and the Financial Offer in Excel Format & Self Declaration Template or updates related to the tender, including responses to inquiries received. 2. Tenderers questions regarding the tender documents and contract award procedure Please address any commercial, technical and procedural questions no later than Thursday 16th July 2026, 2:00 PM. Please provide the following details in the email subject line [CONFIDENTIAL Company Name - Questions for Tender nb. 7000016633 - Lebanese Economic Sector Analysis - SFF: S-018193-003] and send it to: LB_quotation@giz.de. Any responses that are of general interest will be communicated simultaneously in writing to all companies who have submitted an expression of interest. 3. Submission of tenders and requests to participate The editable templates (Word, Excel) provided by GIZ in electronic form must be used to prepare the request to participate or a tender. The tender must be submitted electronically to the designated mailbox. The subject of the email must always state the tender number (please find the email address and the tender no. in the invitation letter). The tender must be submitted in one (1) email including TWO (2) zip folders named as follows: CONFIDENTIAL Company name - Tender nb. 7000016633 - Lebanese Economic Sector Analysis - SFF: S-018193-003 Please submit your offer by Tuesday 21st July 2026 before 2:00 PM in English only to LB_Quotation@giz.de N.B. For responds and inquiries kindly send your email to LB_quotation@giz.de GIZ mailbox receive size is capped at 25 MB. Documents exceeding the mentioned MB should be transferred via: Start (provide the password within your email) Tender Link : https://daleel-madani.org/civil-society-directory/deutsche-gesellschaft-fur-internationale-zusammenarbeit-giz/calls/public-tender-nb7000016633-request-lebanese-economic-sector-analysis-sff-s-018193-003
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